Tom Cruise is one of Hollywood’s bankable stars. However, this might not be enough to save his upcoming movie “Digger” from a possible sharp decline at the box office this weekend.
That’s unlike 2025, when the studio released a string of hits like “Sinners” and “Guns” by Warner Bros., whose films have largely struggled to connect with audiences this year. It would be unwelcome news.
All of this adds up to the studio’s move to Paramount Skydance’s $111 billion Warner Bros. It comes as Discovery prepares for an uncertain future with its acquisition closing on Tuesday.
“No film alone is going to capsize the boat,” said Stephen Galloway, dean of the Dodge School of Film and Media Arts at Chapman University. “But this comes at a precarious time, as it comes after a string of underwhelming releases just as the Warner Bros.-Paramount deal was getting the green light and everyone (no matter how high-profile) was fearing for their jobs.”
Matching the success of the 2025 movie slate was always going to be a difficult task, especially when Warner Bros. has so many films. movies overperformed that year.
So far this year, the studio’s domestic box office is $437.7 million, representing about 5.6% of total theatrical revenue in the U.S. and Canada, according to Rentrak data.
Last year, Warner Bros.’ The total figure at the time was $1.8 billion; this was aided by back-to-back successes, starting with “A Minecraft Movie”, which became the highest-grossing film at the domestic box office that calendar year.
The studio does not currently have any films in the top 20 of domestic box office this year; Emerald Fennell’s adaptation of “Wuthering Heights” ranked No. 21 with $84 million, including holdovers from 2025. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Bride!” Bets on movies like the movie cratered as DC Studios’ “Supergirl” flopped.
“The Digger” is unlikely to turn things around.
Director Alejandro González Iñárritu’s satire about the impending climate change apocalypse divided critics and led to very mixed reviews. Tracking estimates for the film’s initial release have trended steadily downward, settling between $15 million and $19 million.
This would be a major understatement, considering the film’s production budget was approximately $125 million (not including marketing costs).
“Digger” faces many obstacles. First, the film has a major twist that complicates its marketing and makes it difficult to tell audiences what the film is about.
There’s also Cruise’s nearly unrecognizable performance as Digger Rockwell, the eccentric oil tycoon whose drilling operations lead to escalating climate disaster. Covered in prosthetics and with a head full of graying hair, Cruise is a far cry from his usual stunt-heavy, bravado-filled roles, which could make typical audiences less likely to come to theaters, analysts said.
“There are a lot of question marks,” said David A. Gross, a writer for the film industry newsletter FranchiseRe. “He doesn’t seem to be heading towards financial success.”
The movie, Warner Bros. It will have value beyond its theatrical reception. Industry experts said “Digger” will also likely make money from ancillary revenue streams such as premium video on demand and streaming. Galloway said Cruise winning the coveted Oscar for his role as Digger would also be a plus.
Beyond the fate of “Digger,” Warner Bros.’ The theater business will be of primary importance to the combined Paramount-Warner company.
Last year, Warner’s studio business, which includes both film and television production, generated $12.6 billion in revenue. According to market expectations, it is expected to generate $11.1 billion in revenue this year. On a positive note, Warner Bros. is expected to release the animated film “The Cat in the Hat” in November and the popular “Dune: Part Three” by the end of the year.
Warner Bros.’ prospects should improve next year, when its film and TV studios are expected to generate $11.7 billion in revenue thanks to strong productions including a “Minecraft” sequel and a new “Lord of the Rings” movie, according to Bernstein research.
In addition to theatrical revenue, Warner Bros.’ Movie and TV content have been key drivers of HBO Max’s business and will also provide valuable content to Paramount+, especially as linear cable networks continue to decline.
“I think the real reason why Paramount Skydance bought Warner Bros. was because of the studios,” said Laurent Yoon, senior analyst at Bernstein. “It all starts with the studios.”
The combined company is also legally required to release at least 30 films a year as part of a settlement agreement with 12 state attorneys general, including California’s Rob Bonta, over antitrust allegations. Paramount Chief Executive David Ellison previously said the two studios would each release 15 films a year.
However, once the merger is complete, the type of content the studios will release may change. Under the direction of film heads Pam Abdy and Mike De Luca, Warner Bros. has gained a reputation for auteur-driven, original stories, especially after the success of the 2025 movie. Ellison’s slate has veered toward blockbuster fare.
The merged company will also face a huge debt load of more than $80 billion after the merger is completed, meaning there could be greater pressure for future movies to be hits.
“Ellison is primarily in the business of delivering blockbusters,” Galloway said. “This will be even more important as we try to get the ship out of debt.”